UDC 911.6
The article examines the spatial mismatch between demographic and fiscal effects of oil and gas production in Eastern Siberia at the municipal level. The study aims to determine whether there is a significant spatial concordance between production areas and zones of demographic growth and budgetary concentration. We use municipal results of the 2010 and 2020 population censuses, a population density map, and the structure of local budget revenues with a separate focus on “payments for the use of natural resources.” The contours of oil and gas development are compiled from industry reports and the authors’ database. Methodologically, the analysis relies on cartographic overlays, descriptive statistics, and comparisons of means for municipalities located inside and outside the production contours. The results indicate prevailing depopulation in peripheral northern municipalities and a concentration of growth in narrow agglomeration belts (Irkutsk and Yakutsk agglomerations, suburbs of Ulan-Ude, etc.). Oil and gas provinces are largely situated in density classes of <1 person/km², consistent with a fly-in/fly-out, export-oriented model and weak integration of production into local labor markets. The share of resource rent in local budgets inside the production contours is nearly twice the regional average (approximately 0.77% versus 0.39%; ratio 1.96), yet absolute inflows remain small, and the largest budgets accrue in administrative and transport hubs with diversified tax bases. The interpretation points to institutional and spatial mechanisms behind the mismatch: centralized oil and gas taxation, registration of taxpayers outside production sites, low population density, and high infrastructure costs. At the same time, related studies show that the sector can generate substantial local multiplier effects; in the study region these effects are largely not retained locally, creating tensions not only along the “federal–local” budget line but also within regions—between agglomeration centers that benefit and the territories of direct resource development.
Eastern Siberia, oil and gas production, municipal budgets, resource rent, demographic change, population density, spatial analysis, intergovernmental fiscal relations
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